Tuesday Dec 3, Gold ...من Boostdemon26

03 Dec 2024, 10:58 · Views 2,311

Tuesday Dec 3, Gold fluctuated and rose slightly, currently trading around $2,641.13 per ounce. Gold prices fell 0.44% on Monday to close at $2,638.69 per ounce, ending four consecutive days of gains. As the political crisis in France escalated, the U.S. dollar rebounded sharply.

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Gold trading reminder: Concerns about the situation in Russia and Ukraine have enveloped the market, and gold prices have been positive for three consecutive times! Or the sword is pointing at the middle track of Bollinger Bands At the beginning of the Asian market on Thursday, November 21, spot gold fluctuated within a narrow range and was currently trading around $2,649.57 per ounce. Gold prices climbed for the third consecutive trading day on Wednesday, hitting a new high of more than a week at US$2,655.27 per ounce and closing at US$2,650.07 per ounce. The escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine intensified geopolitical concerns and investors sought safe havens. Earlier on Wednesday, gold prices were suppressed by the 55-day moving average. In addition, the market's expectations for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve cooled, and the U.S. dollar index resumed its gains, which once caused the gold price to fall back to $2,618.78 per ounce. This was because investors wanted to know more about the Federal Reserve's policy. Interest rate plans and policies proposed by U.S. President-elect Trump.

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On Tuesday, spot gold prices edged down 0.2% to close at $2,640 an ounce. Strong U.S. labor market data reinforced the view that the U.S. economy is solid while driving a stronger dollar, putting pressure on dollar-denominated gold. According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the number of JOLTS job openings in the United States increased to 7.744 million in October, which was higher than the market consensus of 7.48 million and higher than the downwardly revised 7.372 million in September. The data prompted gold to give back some of its earlier gains on comments from Federal Reserve officials. In addition, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool shows that the market's probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in December has increased to 72.5% from the previous mid-60%. While a stronger U.S. dollar and interest rate outlook weighed on gold prices, geopolitical risks provided support for gold. The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and political risks in France have kept the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset high. From a technical perspective, gold prices are still fluctuating near the main trend lines, showing a range-bound trend. Currently, gold may be forming a three-wave "Measured Move" pattern. If this pattern holds true, the next wave could be a downward “C wave” with a target near $2,550. If the price of gold falls below US$2,605 (low on November 26), the subsequent downward trend will be confirmed, with a target price of US$2,550 near the end of the "C wave". In addition, the MACD indicator recently fell below the red signal line and is in the negative zone, sending a bearish signal and supporting the view that gold prices will decline in the short term.

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The Bank of Japan will announce its latest interest rate decision, followed by a monetary policy press conference by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. Overnight index swaps show a 15% chance that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this week. It is worth noting that before the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision is announced, the Federal Reserve will announce the results of its interest rate decision, and the foreign exchange market may face huge fluctuations. According to CME’s “Fed Watch”, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points this week is 95.4%. Although the market generally expects the Bank of Japan to remain on hold this week, with the yen reaching 155 as a critical point, the Bank of Japan may still change its attitude and suddenly raise interest rates. Considering the current trend of yen depreciation and the upcoming FOMC meeting before the Bank of Japan meeting, we should keep in mind that if the dollar reaches a level of 155 yen due to this event, the Bank of Japan may still suddenly decide to raise interest rates.

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Data released on Tuesday (November 26) showed that Japan's leading indicator of service sector inflation stabilized at nearly 3% in October, reinforcing the Bank of Japan's view that rising wages are prompting more companies to pass on labor through price increases. rising costs. The Bank of Japan is watching services inflation closely for clues as to whether demand-driven price increases have widened enough to justify further interest rate hikes. The data will be one of the factors considered by the Bank of Japan at its next policy meeting in December. Some analysts expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by then. Data from the Bank of Japan showed that the service industry PPI, which measures the fees companies charge each other for services, rose 2.9% year-on-year in October, higher than 2.8% in September. The rise was driven by growth in services such as machinery repairs, accommodation and construction work, the data showed. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has said Japan's economy is moving toward sustained wage-driven inflation, which could allow the central bank to raise still-low interest rates again. "We are seeing progress on the domestic front," Ueda said at a news conference last week, pointing to growing signs that wages will continue to rise and prompt companies to raise prices not just for goods but also for services. . Consumer inflation data released last week showed that the price of services charged by businesses to households rose by 1.5% year-on-year in October, up from 1.3% in September. October's inflation data is closely watched as a sign of things to come, as many Japanese companies typically charge for half-year services in April and October. The Bank of Japan ended negative interest rates in March and raised short-term policy rates to 0.25% in July as it believes the country is on track to achieve its 2% inflation target on a sustained basis.

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