FPG ：New non-agricultural employment exceeds expectations, Saudi Arabia will lower the price of crude oil 1. [Israel is about to officially start a war with Lebanon] According to the Israel Times, several rockets were launched from Lebanon to northern Israel on the 5th, in case Captain Garland said on the same day that there was not much time to end Israel’s constant tension between Israel and Allah by diplomatic means, which shows that Israel will soon have no choice. , can only launch a large-scale military advance on Lebanon’s direct consciousness. Comments: Israel and Lebanon have been “fighting” under the table directly, and Israel may officially declare war soon. 2. [The situation in Northeast Asia continues to be tense] According to the South Korean Joint Staff Headquarters on the 6th, the North Korean military fired more than 60 coastal guns in the northwest of the peninsula. The next day, the Korean Central News Agency said on January 7 that North Korea did not conduct artillery training on the 6th, but only explosive blasting. Comments: There is a high probability that it is hit, which can be clearly seen from the wording. It’s just that from the aspect of “who does it first”, we need to pay attention to everything. 3. [U.S. House Speaker Johnson said on the 7th] The leaders of the two parties of Congress reached an agreement on an expenditure agreement totalling $1.59 trillion on the same day, for the federal government to avoid falling into the part due to insufficient funds on January 19. “Stop” paves the way. Comments: The scale of U.S. debt continues to rise. 4. [ The scale of our foreign reserves rose to $3.2 trillion] Official gold reserves increased by 14 consecutively. As of the end of December last year, China’s foreign exchange reserves were $3,238 billion, up $66.2 billion on a month; the scale of gold reserves was 71.87 million ounces, an increase of 290,000 ounces month-on-month. Comments: Gold reserves continue to rise, and U.S. debt declines rapidly. 5.【 Toyota said that many local suppliers and subsidiaries will use parts outside the area affected by the earthquake in Japan. Due to the risk of aftershocks, the operation will be assessed after January 15. Comments: This is also part of the reason for the transfer of Japan’s automobile industry chain. 6.【 Growth in the U.S. service industry is close to stagnation] According to data released last Friday, the U.S. service industry slowed sharply in December 2023, and the employment index fell to its lowest level in nearly three and a half years. The continuous slowdown in the service industry will raise concerns about the risk of the overall cooling of the U.S. economy. The American Supply Management Association (ISM) Service Industry Index fell 2.1 points to 50.6 in December 2023, the largest decline since March 2023. Although it is still above the glorious watershed of 50, it is the second lowest in a year. Comments: It shows that the strong momentum of the U.S. labour market is faceding. FPG Special Analyst Kinq’s Viewpoint: In December 2023, the number of new non-agricultural jobs in the United States exceeded expectations. Education and health services, leisure and hotel industry, and government departments are still the main contributors to new employment, and the breadth of new employment has increased. The U.S. job market has not cooled as expected, but the cooling trend has not changed. It is expected that the contribution of the balance between supply and demand in the job market will still come from the continuous reduction of labour demand, and the decline in the labour participation rate this month may be one of the reasons why the employment market is tight beyond expectations. We maintain the previous judgement that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time or around the middle of this year, with a total of about 100bps four times a year. The current market expects that the interest rate cut will start in March, a total of 150bps six times a year, or there is still a risk of adjustment. Dawson, a special analyst at FPG, views: As governments cancelled their support for high energy costs, inflation in the euro area rebounded in December 2023, highlighting the challenge of the European Central Bank’s expected return of inflation to 2%. The European Central Bank believes that the fight against inflation is far from over, and the inflation rate in the euro area will be flat in the range of 2.5% to 3% in 2024, and then slow down again in 2025. Dave, a special analyst of FPG, views: As market demand continues to be weak, Saudi Arabia will lower the price of key crude oil sold to all regions (including major Asian markets) in February. OPEC+ production reduction is also to prevent the increase of crude oil inventories, because people are worried that economic weakness will curb global crude oil demand. Saudi Arabia has undertaken most of the production cuts, voluntarily reducing production by 2 million barrels per day in the first quarter, and the production reduction measures may last longer. The price of crude oil fell in 2023 for the first time since 2020. So far, the market is not worried about the increase in tensions in the Middle East, and the Yemeni Husai armed attack on merchant ships passing through the Red Sea has not led to the interruption of crude oil supply. FPG special analyst Yuelin’s opinion: The U.S. stock market has not started well this year. After the release of mixed labour and service industry data, traders still believe that there is a possibility of interest rate cuts in March. The S&P 500 index rose 0.2% on Friday, down about 1.5% for the whole week, the worst since the end of October last year, and the nine-week continuous upward momentum came to an end. The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex