Day ahead: In Norway...من 新一代AI智能化交易

18 Feb 2021, 15:04 · Views 125

Day ahead: In Norway, Norges Bank’s Governor Olsen gives his annual address (17:00 GMT/12:00 ET). In the January meeting (statement only), the central bank signaled some downside risks to activity in H1 . Since then, Q4 GDP data show the economy shrunk by less than expected in 2020, while 2021 will continue to benefit from strong fiscal support. Yesterday’s Q1 oil & gas investment survey showed Norwegian oil companies upgraded their 2021 forecasts (NOK174bn vs 166bn earlier). We are long NOK/SEK in our thematic trade of the week.

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新一代AI智能化交易

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英国技术分析师协会注册会员；FXStreet英文主站特约撰稿人。

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Looking ahead to today, we await Germany IFO data, central bank speak in SEK, EUR and USD and various lower tier sentiment prints in the US too. In EM, HKD CPI and an ILS rate decision (hold) are the only points of note.

新一代AI智能化交易

MXN trades at 20.75 after depreciating -1.6%. CitiFX Technicals outlines a possible move higher in spot to strong resistance near 20.85-20.96. On the downside, support comes in around 20.40-20.60. Peso underperformance driven primarily by broader EM sentiment alongside ongoing selloffs in local rates due to US yield moves.

新一代AI智能化交易

ILS: No rate change expected from the BoI at 09:00 EST today. Our trading desk thinks they could portray a slightly less dovish tone in wake of the better than expected CPI, the positive GDP and the strong vaccination rates. That being said, given the high level of unemployment and overall poor state of the economy, we don't expect them to sound too upbeat.

新一代AI智能化交易

The BRL saw a rocky start to the week yesterday but ended on a firmer note yesterday after a round of BCB intervention. The BRL initial sell-off came on the back of the weekend events involving the dismissal of the Petrobras CEO by President Bolsonaro (over disagreements about fuel price changes), which sparked worries for investors about more government interference and a move away from market-friendly policies (Bloomberg). However, a round of intervention by the BCB (which offered USD1bn via FX swaps) helped to cap the USD-BRL topside move. News that the Central Bank Autonomy Bill would be signed on 24 February also helped the BRL in late trading. Still, the developments are worrisome, especially coupled with moves elsewhere in the region and the rise in US yields. The other factor to watch is the new fiscal stimulus bill in the Senate, which is expected to see a vote on Thursday. According to Bloomberg, the new bill offers little in the way of compensatory spending reductions, but does see a salary and hiring freeze of public sector workers extended. Still, amendments may be made, so we will need to see the final version voted on before making a full assessment.

新一代AI智能化交易

The view has been to buy NOK on weakness and after a near 2% move off the lows, the Krone finally found some support as EM currencies also found some support after the recent selloff. Usually in times of stress, the NOK can have an incredibly tough time, but the fact that the selloff in the NOK was relatively well contained is encouraging for the NOK bulls among us.

新一代AI智能化交易