EUR/USD alternates g...من Aly

EUR/USD alternates gains with losses early in the European session in the second half of the week, coming down under moderate selling pressure following Monday’s tops in the 1.1160/65 band. Spot navigates the lower end of the range amidst no fresh headlines from the US-China trade front other than rising speculations over the potential resumptions of negotiations in the near term.

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Aly

EUR has finally succumbed to the downside pressure and is extending the recent breakdown of the 1.1100 handle on the back of shrinking ‘repatriation’ forces, renewed buying interest surrounding the buck and expectations of ECB easing. That said, sustained bullish attempts in the pair still look flimsy amidst ECB’s preparations for a fresh wave of monetary stimulus (most likely to be announced in September), including a potential reduction of interest rates, the re-start of the QE programme and a probable tiered deposit rate system. This scenario has been confirmed as of late following poor results from the euro-docket, adding to the unremitting deterioration of the economic outlook in the region. On another front, Italian politics has resurfaced as a source of uncertainty as of late and is expected to weigh on the sentiment sooner rather than later.

Aly

EUR/USD is trading at 1.1093. A 4-hour close above 1.1104 would invalidate the flag pattern. That said, a break above 1.1162 to invalidate the bearish put forward by the range breakdown on Aug. 14.

Aly