Morning Update (03.01.2025)

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NORDFX Global

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🪙 NordFX Crypto News of the Week: ETF Volume ≠ ETF Money 📊 Bitcoin ETFs: don't confuse trading with inflows US spot Bitcoin ETFs swung between creations and redemptions: -$148.7M on Sep 30, +$102.7M on Oct 1, +$189.8M on Oct 2, -$89.9M on Oct 5 and +$118.8M on Oct 6. BlackRock's IBIT led the latest session with +$122M. But here's the important part 👇 ETF trading volume is not ETF inflow. Billions of dollars can change hands as investors trade existing ETF shares on exchanges without the fund receiving billions in new money. Net creations/redemptions show whether the ETF structure is actually expanding or contracting through authorised participants. ₿ Bitcoin cools Bitcoin slipped towards $84K-$85K by Oct 7 as a stronger dollar, high Treasury yields and geopolitical risk outweighed the recent improvement in ETF demand. 🏛️ Crypto politics heats up The US CFTC proposed a federal framework for crypto platforms offering leveraged or margined trading after broader legislation stalled. In Europe, ESMA called for stronger powers, including the ability to order crypto firms to freeze assets suspected of links to crime. 🔗 Wall Street moves further on-chain An OKX-ICE joint venture filed with the SEC for a platform aimed at enabling 24/7 trading of tokenised US stocks. 😂 Fun fact of the week A memecoin frenzy on Robinhood Chain briefly generated around $443M in trading, before activity collapsed by roughly 96%. Crypto managed to compress an entire boom-and-bust cycle into weeks. 🎢 🎯 NordFX takeaway: ETF headlines need context. Volume measures how much ETF shares trade. Net creations and redemptions tell us much more about whether fresh capital is actually entering or leaving the funds.

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☀️ NordFX Morning Update – October 12, 2026 🌍 Geopolitics and oil 🛢️ Oil is sliding as Trump announced a deal for Russia to supply diesel, and the US Treasury waived sanctions on Russian diesel through April 2027. Brent is trading near $103.9 (–0.8%) and WTI near $90.7 (–1.3%). 🚀 Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia, including Riyadh’s airport, and the uncertainty around the Iran war keep the supply risk alive. 🇺🇸 Wall Street and the Fed 📈 US stocks closed Friday higher: Dow +0.83%, S&P 500 +0.59% (7,811.5), Nasdaq +0.64%. The S&P 500 is just below its record high after a strong week. 💵 The 10-year Treasury yield finished near 5.25%, close to a 24-year high. 😟 Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 46.3, and 1-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7%. 🌏 Asian markets 🇯🇵 Tokyo is closed for a holiday (Nikkei closed Friday at 69,031). 🇭🇰 Hang Seng +0.07% (24,230) 🇨🇳 Shanghai Composite –0.16% (3,808) 🇰🇷 KOSPI –3.38% (6,402) – tech sell-off, foreign selling and Middle East worries 🇦🇺 ASX 200 +0.76% (8,783) 🇹🇼 Taiex +0.16% 🇮🇳 Nifty 50 –0.48% 💱 Forex, metals and crypto 💶 EUR/USD: 1.1202 💴 USD/JPY: 158.35 💷 GBP/USD: 1.3238 🥇 Gold: ~$4,183 per oz (–0.27%) after three straight sessions of gains ₿ Bitcoin: ~$84,100 (+1.2%) Ξ Ethereum: ~$2,562 (+2.3%) 📅 Today and this week 🔹 Today: Cleveland Fed’s Hammack speaks. US bond markets are closed for Columbus Day, while stocks trade. 🔹 Tuesday: JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report earnings. 🔹 Wednesday: US September CPI – the key inflation test for the Fed. 🔹 Thursday: UK August GDP. 🔹 This week: China trade and inflation data. ⚠️ Trade with care and manage your risk!

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📚 NordFX Education: DXY Is Not the Dollar DXY says the dollar is strong. 💵 Does that mean every USD pair should behave the same way? No. And today's market is a good example. 👀 DXY is around 102.0, but look under the hood: 🇪🇺 EUR - 57.6% of DXY 🇯🇵 JPY - 13.6% 🇬🇧 GBP - 11.9% 🇨🇦 CAD - 9.1% 🇸🇪 SEK - 4.2% 🇨🇭 CHF - 3.6% So almost 58% of DXY is the euro alone. Right now, EUR/USD is near 1.123, pressured partly by French fiscal and political uncertainty. USD/JPY is around 158.3, where Japanese policy and inflation have their own influence. Meanwhile, the Indian rupee is near 96.6 per dollar, affected by oil prices and RBI intervention - yet INR has zero weight in DXY. 🌍 🛢️ Add Iran, Hormuz risks and volatile oil prices, and the differences can become even larger. Oil importers, exporters and safe-haven currencies can react very differently to the same headline. ⚠️ DXY up ≠ every USD pair up ⚠️ DXY down ≠ global dollar demand down DXY is one lens on the dollar, not a universal USD thermometer. 🌡️ 🎯 When trading a USD pair, analyse both sides of the pair, not just DXY. 👉 Trade with NordFX: https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis... #NordFX #DXY #USD #Forex #TradingEducation

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🤖 One AI Theme. Two Charts. Very Different Behaviour. NVDA and USTEC can both give you exposure to the AI story. But put their charts side by side and the difference becomes much easier to see. 🎯 NVDA concentrates your exposure in one company. Earnings, guidance or a company-specific headline can trigger a sharp move. 📊 USTEC spreads exposure across the Nasdaq 100. Individual company moves still matter, but their impact is mixed with the performance of the rest of the index. Want to see the difference rather than just read about it? 🧪 Try this simple demo exercise: 1️⃣ Register and open a NordFX demo account. 2️⃣ Put NVDA and USTEC charts side by side. 3️⃣ Use the same timeframe and watch them during the same market session. 4️⃣ Compare the speed, size and timing of their moves. 5️⃣ Notice when NVDA reacts independently and when both instruments move with the broader market. There is no "winner" in this experiment. The point is to see how concentrated vs diversified exposure behaves before deciding which better fits a particular market view. 👉 Register and test it on demo: https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis... #NordFX #Trading #AI #NVDA #USTEC #Nasdaq100 #CFDTrading

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📊 NordFX: When +25% Doesn't Really Mean +25% US retail sales rose 0.8% in September. But there is an important detail behind that headline: the number is seasonally adjusted. 🔍 Imagine a retailer records: 🛒 November sales: $100m 🎄 December sales: $125m Raw growth: +25%. 🚀 But December is normally much stronger because of Christmas shopping. After removing that recurring seasonal effect, our hypothetical increase might be only +0.5%. Both numbers can be correct: 🔹 NSA (unadjusted) shows what was actually recorded 🔹 SA (seasonally adjusted) helps reveal the underlying change after recurring seasonal and calendar effects are removed Why does this matter now? 🌍⚡ September US retail sales jumped 0.8%, but expensive gasoline helped drive the headline, while the closely watched retail control group increased just 0.1%. With inflation, energy shocks and geopolitical turbulence moving markets, reading beyond the headline matters more than ever. 📈📉 💡 Trader's rule: before comparing two economic numbers, check whether both are SA or both are NSA. Otherwise, you may be comparing two different things. 👉 Explore the markets with NordFX: https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis...

NORDFX Global