Current dynamics

The AUD/USD pair is correcting in a downward trend at 0.6588, being in close proximity to the autumn lows.

Meanwhile, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), overall business turnover in the top 13 industries increased by 0.2% in September, with the largest month-on-month growth seen in construction ( 3.7%), electricity and water ( 3.4%), and media ( 3.4%). The largest declines, as in the previous month, were seen in mining (-1.5%) and wholesale trade (-1.1%). In total, positive dynamics were observed in 10 industries, with electricity and gas services leading the way in year-on-year terms ( 19.3%), while mining remains the lagging industry (-11.9%).

The US dollar is holding steady at 105.00 in the USDX, while investors are assessing the likelihood of further easing by the US Federal Reserve, which is expected to adjust interest rates by -25 basis points in December, after which the regulator is likely to take a pause to assess the impact of the measures already taken. Experts fear that the policy of new US President Donald Trump on import prices could become a driver of growth in bond yields and inflation, against the backdrop of which monetary authorities may abandon the “dovish” rhetoric.

Support and resistance levels

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is correcting significantly above the support line of the global “expanding formation” pattern with dynamic boundaries of 0.6950–0.6300.

Technical indicators are slowing down the sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are kept at a stable distance from the signal line, and the AO histogram is rising in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6630, 0.6740.

Support levels: 0.6560, 0.6470.

Trading scenarios

Short positions can be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 0.6560 with a target of 0.6470. Stop loss is 0.6600. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Long positions can be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 0.6630 with a target of 0.6740. Stop loss is 0.6580.