Following the recent U.S. presidential election on November 5, financial markets are reacting to potential shifts in economic and regulatory policies under the new administration. October labour market data revealed modest gains, with nonfarm payroll employment rising by 12,000 jobs, keeping the unemployment rate at 4.1%. Healthcare and government sectors saw slight improvements, while temporary help services and manufacturing continued to struggle, partly due to ongoing strike activities. Additionally, Hurricanes Helene and Milton caused disruptions across the southeastern U.S., impacting employment figures and market sentiment.
Following the data release, the dollar saw a minor decline of 0.35%, while major stock indices and cryptocurrencies showed signs of recovery. With the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts likely beginning in early 2025, markets are already adjusting in expectation of a 25-basis-point reduction at the upcoming meetings. The economic policies of the newly elected administration will be crucial in determining the trajectory of these anticipated rate changes and overall market stability.
EUR/USD
The Euro experienced a slight increase over the week, though it appears to be struggling to maintain those gains. Currently, the market seems likely to remain volatile and move sideways, with prices hovering around the 50-Week EMA. If the price breaks above the top of the previous week’s candlestick, it could face resistance at the 1.10 level. Conversely, the 1.0750 level offers strong support and is worth monitoring closely. Should the price fall below this point, it may target the 1.05 level, which has consistently served as a major support zone over the past few years. Overall, the market appears to lack clear direction at this stage.
XAU/USD
Escalating geopolitical tensions have led investors to turn to safe-haven assets like gold, fuelled by heightened risk aversion and concerns about global market stability. Gold has repeatedly set new records this year, climbing over 30% amid expectations of further central bank rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. According to LSEG data, this marks its strongest annual growth since 1979. Gold had a bullish run last week, but momentum appears to be slowing. The weekly candlestick reflects some hesitation, indicating that a phase of profit-taking might be near. The $2800 mark, a significant psychological level, has drawn substantial market interest. Traders should monitor any pullbacks closely, as these may present buying opportunities, particularly around the $2600 level.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin (BTC) recently reached the $80,000 mark, nearing an all-time high and reflecting renewed market confidence. However, signs of profit-taking have emerged, suggesting potential volatility ahead. Analysts believe that Bitcoin might experience a pullback in the coming days, particularly as the market processes the implications of the U.S. presidential election, a critical event shaping the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies. If BTC declines and closes below the $78,000 level, it could test the next key support around $75,000, with the breakout zone near $74,500 on the weekly chart. A continued hold above $80,000, however, could drive Bitcoin toward a new high, with the next target being $85,000.
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.
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