• The Mexican Peso rebounds slightly, but struggles to recover recent losses despite higher-than-expected economic growth in Q3. 
• Technical trend-following and the threat of a Trump victory is probably a factor weighing on the Peso as polls show a close race. 
• USD/MXN continues unfolding a bullish ‘abc’ pattern. 

The Mexican Peso (MXN) trades mixed in its key pairs – USD/MXN, EUR/MXN and GBP/MXN – on Thursday after weakening for four days running. The continuation lower comes despite a slight improvement in Mexican fundamentals as technical traders ride the Peso’s downtrend. 

Mexican Peso struggles as US presidential election draws to a close

The Mexican Peso’s broad weakness could be attributed to the continuing high odds of former President Donald Trump winning the US presidential election on November 5 given his promise to place high tariffs on Mexican imports. In addition, Trump’s preference for lowering taxes despite a rising US debt pile could also potentially lead to higher US Treasury yields and boost the US Dollar (USD), directly impacting USD/MXN. 

The election model on polling website FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 52% chance of winning versus Vice President Kamala Harris’ 48%. Betting website OddsChecker offers fractional odds of 11/18 (or 62.1%) for a Trump win against 28/17 (or 37.8%) for a Kamala Harris victory. The latest opinion polls, however, still place Harris marginally in the lead with 48.1% for the Democrat nominee versus 46.7% for the Republican.