EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is showing a moderate decline, correcting downwards after the growth the day before. The instrument is testing the level of 1.0805 for a breakdown, while investors expect new drivers on the market. In particular, today, at 09:00 (GMT 2), November statistics on Consumer Confidence in Germany were published by the analytical portal Gfk Group: the index increased from –21.0 points (revised from –21.2 points) to –18.3 points, contrary to forecasts of –20.5 points. In the US, at 16:00 (GMT 2), the market will receive data on the Housing Price Index and JOLTS Job Openings: according to preliminary estimates, house prices in August will add another 0.1%, while the number of open vacancies will decrease from 8.04 million to 7.99 million. The October labor market statistics will be released later in the week, and on Wednesday investors will turn their attention to the October report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on private sector employment: the figure is expected to decrease from 143.0 thousand to 115.0 thousand. Tomorrow, the eurozone will publish data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter: analysts expect the indicator to grow in quarterly terms by 0.2%, while the annual dynamics could accelerate from 0.6% to 0.8%, which will somewhat weaken expectations of a faster easing of monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB). On the same day, the market will receive data on inflation in Germany: in October, the Consumer Price Index will probably rise from 1.6% to 1.8%, and the Harmonized CPI — from 1.8% to 2.1%.

GBP/USD

During the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair quotes are held in the area of 1.2965. Some pressure on the pound's position is being exerted by statistics on Retail Price Indices from the British Retail Consortium (BRC): the annual dynamics accelerated from –0.6% to –0.8% in October, while analysts had expected –0.5%. This indicator also indirectly indicates a further weakening of inflation risks, allowing the Bank of England to move towards a more aggressive reduction in borrowing costs. UK consumer lending data are due out at 11:30 (GMT 2) today, with Net Consumer Lending expected to be adjusted to 4.1 billion pounds in September from 4.2 billion pounds, and Mortgage Approvals to 64.200 thousand from 64,858 thousand. Meanwhile, the downward dynamics of quotes is also facilitated by the October business activity statistics published at the end of last week: thus, the Manufacturing PMI from S&P Global fell from 51.5 points to 50.3 points with preliminary estimates of 51.4 points, the Services PMI — from 52.4 points to 51.8 points, while experts expected 52.2 points, and the Composite PMI — from 52.6 points to 51.7 points. On Wednesday, at 14:15 (GMT 2), the US will release a report on Nonfarm Payrolls from Automatic Data Processing (ADP): forecasts suggest a decline from 143.0 thousand to 115.0 thousand. Also, at 14:30 (GMT 2), third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data will be released: the quarterly indicator is expected to remain at 3.0%, while the deflator is expected to fall from 2.5% to 2.0%.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair shows moderate decline, testing the level of 0.5970 for a breakdown. The instrument is holding close to local lows from August 7, updated the day before, while investors are assessing the prospects for further easing of monetary policy by New Zealand and US financial authorities. The next meetings of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the US Federal Reserve will be held in November. The New Zealand regulator is expected to cut the interest rate by 50 basis points, and it is also possible that officials will decide to adjust it by –75 basis points at once, given the sharp slowdown in the Consumer Price Index in the third quarter from 3.3% to 2.2% in annual terms and from 0.7% to 0.6% in quarterly terms. The RBNZ's forecasts suggest that inflation will remain at 0.4% in the next quarter. In turn, on Thursday, statistics on the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index will be published, which may confirm the effectiveness of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The rate is expected to increase from 0.1% to 0.3% in September, but remain at 2.7% year-on-year. Thus, the likelihood that the regulator will adjust the interest rate by –25 basis points at the November meeting after –50 basis points in September increases significantly. Moreover, experts are trying to predict the results of the US presidential elections scheduled for November 5: many of them expect that Donald Trump's victory could lead to a slowdown in the pace of monetary easing, since the Republican candidate plans to significantly tighten tariff policy. On Friday, October US labor market data will be released, with forecasts suggesting a sharp decline in nonfarm payrolls from 254.0 thousand to 123.0 thousand, a slowdown in Average Hourly Earnings from 0.4% to 0.3% month-on-month and a 4.0% annualized gain, and a likely stabilization in Unemployment Rate at 4.1%.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is showing a moderate decline, retreating from late July highs, updated the day before. The instrument is testing 152.90 for a breakdown, while the yen is receiving some support from macroeconomic publications. The Unemployment Rate in September adjusted from 2.5% to 2.4%, and Jobs / Applicants Ratio increased from 1.23 to 1.24. Some improvement in the labor market could have a positive impact on the Bank of Japan's further policy of tightening monetary conditions. However, the main obstacle for the regulator remains the rather unstable level of inflation. October data released to the market on Friday showed the Tokyo Consumer Price Index slowing to 1.8% from 2.1%, while the Core CPI excluding Food and Energy accelerated to 1.8% from 1.6%. The results of the parliamentary elections in Japan are putting additional pressure on the yen: the ruling coalition has lost its majority and now a new struggle is beginning to form new influence groups. Some analysts fear that the election results could lead to the formation of a government that will not be able to fully control the process of increasing borrowing costs. Japan will release September data on Industrial Production and Retail Sales on Thursday. In turn, in the US on Wednesday, a report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on private sector employment will be presented, which will precede the October statistics from the US Department of Labor, which will hit the market at the end of the week.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair has resumed active growth in the short term, holding near 2750.00. The instrument also came close to renewing record highs as gold remains in demand amid growing market uncertainty. In particular, on November 5, the results of the presidential elections in the United States will be known, where Donald Trump may win. However, if the Republican candidate wins, the dollar could receive additional support, as he promises to tighten tariff policies against the EU and China. Also, in November, the US Federal Reserve will meet, from which it is expected that the interest rate will be cut by only 25 basis points, with possible signals for a similar reduction in the value in December. The data on Durable Goods Orders released on Friday did not have a noticeable impact on the dollar's dynamics: in September, the indicator lost 0.8%, which coincided with the dynamics of the previous month, while analysts expected a 1.0% loss. Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft accelerated to 0.5% from 0.3%, beating forecasts for a slowdown to 0.1%. This week, investors will focus on October US labor market statistics: a sharp decline in Nonfarm Payrolls is expected from 254.0 thousand to 123.0 thousand, and Average Hourly Earnings may slow from 0.4% to 0.3%.