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Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price might attract haven flows amid persistent geopolitical risks

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Wulan Viana
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  • Iran fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday in retaliation to the latter’s aggression in Lebanon against the Iran-backed armed movement, Hezbollah, and helped revive demand for the safe-haven Gold price. 
  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised that Iran would pay for its missile attack, while Iran said any retaliation would be met with vast destruction, raising the risk of a broader conflict in the Middle East.
  • The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the number of job openings unexpectedly increased in August and stood at 8.04 million. 
  • Separately, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 47.2 in September, pointing to a contraction in the business activity for the sixth straight month.
  • Investors are still assessing the likelihood of another 50 basis points interest rate cut by the US central bank in November after the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's relatively hawkish comments on Monday. 
  • Powell said that he sees two more 25 bps rate cuts this year as a baseline if the economy performs as expected, though the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates over a 35% chance of a supersized rate cut next month. 
  • Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted on Tuesday that the US central bank should be willing to explore more outsized rate cuts if the jobs market deteriorates and the PCE data show disinflation still on track.
  • Market participants now look forward to the US ADP report, which is expected to show that private-sector employers added 120K jobs in September as compared to the 99K previous, for short-term opportunities.
  • The focus, however, will remain glued to the closely-watched official monthly employment details, popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which should provide a fresh directional impetus. 

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