- EUR/USD trades almost flat as the US Dollar (USD) remains close to a fresh 2024 low. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades close to 101.00. The outlook of the US Dollar remains bearish as the Federal Reserve (Fed) appears to be on track to cut interest rates in September.
- This would be the first dovish interest rate decision by the Fed in more than four years. The US central bank has maintained a restrictive monetary policy stance since March 2022 to bring down inflation.
- Market speculation for Fed interest rate cuts has strengthened as the "vast majority" of Fed officials see policy-easing in September as appropriate, given that inflationary pressures continue to ease further, according to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of July 30-31 policy meeting. The FOMC minutes also showed that some policymakers were ready to reduce interest rates already back in July.
- For more cues on the interest rate path, investors will focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium, which will begin at 14:00 GMT. Investors will pay attention to clues about the size of interest rate cuts in September and by how much the Fed could reduce them this year.
- In Thursday’s session, investors will keenly focus on the US flash S&P Global PMI data for August, which will be published at 13:45 GMT. The preliminary PMI report is expected to show that the Composite PMI fell to 53.5 from 54.3 in July.
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