- Data published on Wednesday showed that US consumer prices rebounded as anticipated in July and dashed hopes for a bigger interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.
- In fact, the US Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the headline US CPI rose moderately, by 0.2% in July after falling 0.1% in the previous month.
- The annual increase in the CPI, however, slowed a bit and fell below 3% for the first time in nearly 3-1/2 years, suggesting continued progress towards the Fed's inflation goals.
- The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.2% during the reported month and eased to 3.2% in the 12 months through July from 3.3% in June.
- According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, investors now see a 36% chance of a 50-basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting versus the 50% prior to the US CPI data.
- This triggered a late recovery in the US Treasury bond yields, which assisted the US Dollar in attracting some buyers at lower levels and weighed on the non-yielding yellow metal.
- The USD Index (DXY) gains some follow-through traction on Thursday and acts as a headwind for the commodity, though elevated geopolitical tensions continue to offer some support.
- Mediators are hoping to kick-start ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas on Thursday amid the risk of an imminent Iranian attack on Israel within the next few days.
- Traders now look to the US economic docket – featuring Retail Sales, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and regional manufacturing indices – for short-term opportunities.
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