| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | BUY LIMIT |
| Entry Point | 0.5992 |
| Take Profit | 0.6070 |
| Stop Loss | 0.5965 |
| Key Levels | 0.5860, 0.5981, 0.5992, 0.6070, 0.6100, 0.6205 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 0.5960 |
| Take Profit | 0.5860 |
| Stop Loss | 0.6010 |
| Key Levels | 0.5860, 0.5981, 0.5992, 0.6070, 0.6100, 0.6205 |
Current trend
After the release of the results of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy meeting, the NZD/USD pair reached the 0.6003 region.
Today, officials adjusted the cost of borrowing from 5.50% to 5.25%, although analysts expected the indicator to remain at the previous level. In the accompanying statement, officials noted that inflation was returning to the target range of 1.0–3.0% YoY. Still, in the services sector, it remains high. However, according to calculations, the indicator will continue to slow both domestically and abroad. The pace of further monetary easing will depend on the confidence of the Monetary Policy Committee that price pressures are easing, and the consumer price index is moving steadily toward the 2.0% target.
The trading instrument is moving in a long-term downward trend. After reaching the support level of 0.5860 on August 5, an upward correction began, within which the price reached the resistance level of 0.6070 yesterday. Today, after the interest rate decision, the quotes returned to decline, approaching the support area of 0.5992–0.5981. After a breakdown, a test of the August low of 0.5860 may follow. Otherwise, the upward movement, with the target at 0.6070–0.6100, may resume. In case of a breakout of the upper border, the price may renew the June high of 0.6205 and the long-term trend may reverse upwards.
The medium-term trend reversed upwards this week. On Monday, the asset broke through the zone of 0.6003–0.5989 and reached 0.6083. Today, a correction is developing, within which a test of the trend border of 0.5944–0.5930 may follow. If it is maintained, long positions with the target at the weekly high of 0.6083 and in zone 2 (0.6143–0.6129) are relevant.
Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 0.6070, 0.6100, 0.6205.
Support levels: 0.5992, 0.5981, 0.5860.
Trading tips
Long positions may be opened from 0.5992, with the target at 0.6070 and stop loss 0.5965. Implementation period: 7–9 days.
Short positions may be opened below 0.5965, with the target at 0.5860 and stop loss 0.6010.
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