- Canadian Building Permits declined again in June, printing at -13.9% MoM and adding to the previous month’s revised -12.7% contraction. Market impact is overall limited from low-tier housing data two months behind the curve, and CAD flows remain crimped.
- Fed one-year inflation expectations ticked lower on Monday, falling to 2.97% versus the previous 3.02%.
- Rate markets have eased back on bets of a double-cut in September, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool. Rate traders now see less than 50% odds of a 50-bps cut on September 18, down from last week’s 70% odds.
- Despite the chill in bets for a double-cut, rate markets are still pricing in 100% odds of at least a 25-bps cut from the Fed in September.
- Key US inflation data in the midweek could throw a spanner in the works if price pressures bubble over again.
- US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation due on Tuesday, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slated for Wednesday. Both metrics are expected to tick lower.
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