- On the data front, Australia's May Consumer Price Index CPI ran hot. The headline came in at 4.0% YoY vs. 3.8% expected and 3.6% in the previous month.
- This marked the third consecutive month of acceleration to the highest since November, moving further above the 2-3% target range
- As a result of these developments, the swaps market is now pricing in nearly 40% odds of a 25 bps rate hike on September 24, extending to nearly 50% for November 5.
- In the last meeting, Governor Bullock affirmed the RBA "will do what is necessary" to bring inflation back to target and foresees a longer period before inflation gets sustainably back in the target range.
- Accordingly, with the RBA ruling out rate cuts and with markets potentially considering rate hikes, the downside on the Aussie is set to remain constrained.
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