United States of America

USD is strengthening against EUR, JPY. and GBP.

In June, the consumer confidence index fell from 101.3 points to 100.4 points, above the forecast of 100.0 points but the negative dynamics of the indicator is a sign of an economic slowdown, as a result of which US Fed officials may begin to adjust monetary policy. Nevertheless, most members of the regulator maintain a cautious position, believing that to reduce the cost of borrowing, it is necessary to wait for new evidence of a weakening pace of consumer price growth. Thus, a member of the Board of Governors Lisa Cook said that the agency may turn to “dovish” rhetoric if there is significant progress around ​​inflation and a gradual cooling of the labor market but she declined to give an exact chart.

Eurozone

EUR is weakening against USD, strengthening against JPY, and has ambiguous dynamics against GBP.

In July, the German consumer climate index from GfK Group adjusted from –21.0 points to –21.8 points instead of the expected –19.4 points, returning to negative dynamics after several months of growth. Experts believe that households are concerned about the uncertainty regarding the further actions of the European Central Bank (ECB), which could negatively affect demand. Meanwhile, Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta said that the current macroeconomic picture is consistent with the normalization of monetary policy, and the regulator will implement this process consistently and smoothly, Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn noted that expectations of one or two more interest rate cuts during the year, provided that disinflationary processes are maintained, are quite reasonable.

United Kingdom

GBP is weakening against USD, strengthening against JPY, and has ambiguous dynamics against EUR.

In June, the CBI Retail Sales Change Index adjusted from 8.0 points to –24.0 points, exceeding preliminary estimates of 1.0 points. Leading retailers expect demand to continue to fall, although average wages in the country are currently growing faster than consumer prices. Experts believe that the reason for the decrease in sales in June was the uncertainty of households in the economic situation, as well as bad weather.

Japan

JPY is weakening against EUR, GBP, and USD.

Investors are wary of the significant weakening of the asset since today the rate reached a record of 1986 at 160.39. At the same time, many experts believe that the 160.00 mark is key for intervention by financial authorities, and new currency interventions may begin soon, which will cause a temporary strengthening of JPY against its main competitors. On Thursday, investors await the publication of retail sales data, which may fall from 2.4% to 2.0% in May, putting additional pressure on the national currency.

Australia

AUD is strengthening against EUR, JPY, GBP, and USD.

In May, the average weighted consumer price index rose from 3.6% to 4.0%, exceeding expert estimates of 3.8% and reaching a high in the last six months, which increased investor fears that officials at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be forced to raise interest rates again. Some experts believe that this will happen as early as August if consumer prices maintain their current growth rate. Meanwhile, Assistant Governor of the regulator Christopher Kent said that the current level of borrowing costs contributes to a slowdown in inflation and a decrease in demand, putting pressure on households, and did not rule out a new tightening of monetary policy if necessary.

Oil

The morning growth in oil prices was replaced by a correction.

The market is in a state of uncertainty, as investors await the publication of US data on the core index of personal consumption expenditures for May: if the indicator confirms a decrease in inflationary pressures, the probability of the US Fed starting to ease monetary policy during the September meeting will increase significantly, and the dollar will come under pressure. At the same time, the fundamental background remains positive: the intensification of hostilities between Israel and the Lebanese paramilitary organization Hezbollah, as well as the increased attacks by the Yemeni Houthis on merchant ships, increase the likelihood of interruptions in the supply of Middle Eastern oil to the market. Data on black gold reserves from the American Petroleum Institute (API) reflected their growth by 0.914M barrels. Today, investors are waiting for the publication of similar statistics from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA): according to preliminary estimates, the indicator will decrease by 2.600M barrels, supporting the quotes.