- In June, the Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Confidence index in Australia saw an increase of 1.7%, reaching 83.6 compared to 82.2 in May and marked the first rise since February.
- Despite this uptick, consumer sentiment remains significantly pessimistic, with the index still far below the neutral level of 100.
- Markets are poised for Wednesday's release of the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, anticipating potential changes to guide the RBA's forthcoming decisions.
- Swaps market has reset its odds to less than a 25% chance of a rate cut by December 2024, rising to around 65% probability by February 2025, indicating the RBA's steadfast approach to tackling inflation.
- Last week, Governor Bullock introduced a new stance, affirming the RBA "will do what is necessary" to bring inflation back to target. Consequently, with the RBA ruling out rate cuts, the downside on the Aussie is set to remain constrained.
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