CHINA’S THIRD PLENUM IN JULY TO GIVE INDUSTRIAL METALS A BOOST – TDS

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The rumblings are starting as we look ahead to China’s third plenum set for July. So far, the latest round of stimulus has failed to solidify markets as data from the property market remains weak, while the latest industrial demand data also came in soft overnight, TD Securities commodity strategists note.

All metals are within range of potential CTA selling triggers

"With households already heavily in debt it is entirely likely the latest property market measures have done little to incentivize new debt to be taken on, particularly as housing prices continue their trend lower, challenging the long-held narrative that prices only go up in the long-run. The market is now hoping that China will announce of new domestic based consumption stimulus measures."

"However, despite this festering optimism, industrial metal prices continue to weaken. Our gauge of commodity demand is weakening amid a precarious global macro landscape, and our return decompositions across the complex confirm the demand side is finally starting to weigh heavy on the metals as the early summer euphoria fades."



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