NZD/USD recovers almost a quarter of a percent to trade in the 0.6110s after the US Dollar (USD) softens, following the release of monthly US Retail Sales data, which shows shoppers tightened their belts in both April and May. 

Retail Sales rose 0.1% month-over-month in May but fell below the 0.2% forecast by economists. April’s flat reading, meanwhile, was revised down to a negative 0.2%, according to data from the US Census Bureau, released on Tuesday. 

Retail Sales ex Autos, declined 0.2% MoM – falling below the 0.2% consensus estimate and the downwardly revised 0.1% decline in April. The April figure itself was revised down from a positive 0.2% preliminary reading. 

Both the lower-than-expected readings for May and the downward revisions for April weighed on the US Dollar (USD), but lifted NZD/USD, which measures the buying power of a New Zealand Dollar (NZD) in terms of USD. The data indicates a slowdown in consumer spending in the US which will probably filter through to lower inflation, and lower interest rates. Lower interest rates negatively impact currencies as they reduce foreign capital inflows. 

Market expectations of the future course of US interest rates were revised down following the release. Prior to the release the probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) making a 0.25% rate cut in September was 55%. After the release this increased to 60%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, which uses the price of 30-day Fed Funds Futures to calculate its estimates. The probability that interest rates will fall by either 0.25% or 0.50% by September, meanwhile, rose to nearly 68%