In February 2024, AMLO presented several proposals to the Mexican Congress. These include a Supreme Court reform to elect Supreme Court ministers through a popular vote, an electoral reform aimed at electing electoral commission councilors by popular vote and reducing multi-member representation, and a reform of autonomous bodies that proposes dissolving the transparency body.
Mexican Peso depreciation could weigh on Banxico's decision to ease policy on June 27 despite last month’s dip in core prices. Therefore, keeping interest rates higher could prompt deceleration in the economy and increase the odds of a possible recession.
Morgan Stanley noted that if Mexico’s upcoming government and Congress adopted an unorthodox agenda, it would undermine Mexican institutions and be bearish for the Mexican Peso, which could weaken to 19.20.
Latest US inflation report increased the odds of a Fed rate cut in September from 62% to 56.3%, according to CME FedWatch Tool.
December’s 2024 fed funds futures contract hints that investors expect 35 basis points of rate cuts by the Fed through the end of the year.
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