Current trend

The BTC/USD pair is holding below May highs of 66440.00, failing to recover from a rapid downward trend amid the US Fed’s monetary policy decision and the outflow of investments from Bitcoin ETFs.

Last week, as expected, US financial authorities kept interest rates in the range of 5.25–5.50%, noting the importance of a sustainable reduction in inflation. The May consumer price index slowed from 3.4% to 3.3% YoY and showed zero dynamics after growing by 0.3% MoM, while the core indicator adjusted from 3.6% to 3.4%, above the target level of 2.0%. Most economists believe that the officials will begin the adjustment of the interest rate in September. However, if monetary policy is not eased this year due to significant pressure in the national economy, the dollar will continue to strengthen against its main competitors.

Digital gold came under pressure after the outflow of investments from Bitcoin ETFs, which amounted to 226.21M dollars as of Thursday’s results. 61.0M dollars was withdrawn from the Grayscale fund (GBTC), almost 53.0M dollars from Ark Invest and ARKB from 21Shares, and 10.0M dollars from Bitwise and VanEck. Analysts are confident that many traders switched from trading BTC to stocks of spot Bitcoin ETFs due to their liquidity and clearer regulatory status, and the strengthening of this trend will act as a driver of the downward dynamics of quotations of the first cryptocurrency.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is moving in a corrective trend, approaching the resistance line of the recently passed downward channel 60600.00–47700.00 for reverse testing.

Technical indicators reflect the possibility of a reversal and decline: fast EMA on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal line downwards, expanding the range of fluctuations, and the AO histogram is decreasing, forming downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 68070.00, 73150.00.

Support levels: 64700.00, 59530.00.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 64700.00, with the target at 59530.00. Stop loss — 67000.00. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 68070.00, with the target at 73150.00. Stop loss is 66000.00.