| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 1.0800 |
| Take Profit | 1.0890 |
| Stop Loss | 1.0750 |
| Key Levels | 1.0650, 1.0730, 1.0800, 1.0890 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 1.0730 |
| Take Profit | 1.0650 |
| Stop Loss | 1.0800 |
| Key Levels | 1.0650, 1.0730, 1.0800, 1.0890 |
Current trend
During the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair consolidated near 1.0765 against an active decline in the American dollar and the expectation of the publication of EU macroeconomic statistics.
In April, the service PMI in Spain may reach be 56.0 points, slightly down from 56.1 points previously, and in Italy – 54.7 points, down from 54.6 points previously. Service PMI in France and Germany may increase from 48.3 points to 50.5 points and from 50.1 points to 53.3 points, respectively, causing the EU composite value to increase from 51.5 points to 52.9 points. The March producer price index may adjust from –1.0% to –0.7% MoM and by –8.3% YoY.
The American dollar is trading at 105.00 in USDX after the April employment data release. The unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 3.9% due to a significant reduction in the employment growth in the non-agricultural sector by 175.0K instead of 315.0K previously. Private nonfarm payroll employment increased by 167.0K, down from 243.0K last month. The growth rate of average hourly wages fell to 0.2% from 0.3%. An additional negative aspect was the sharp decline in the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) service PMI from 51.4 points to 49.4 points, while analysts expected the indicator to rise to 52.0 points.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the trading instrument is correcting within the wave inside the downward channel with dynamic boundaries of 1.0880–1.0560.
Technical indicators are weakening the sell signal: fast EMA on the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, narrowing the range of fluctuations, and the AO histogram is forming ascending bars, rising in the sell zone.
Resistance levels: 1.0800, 1.0890.
Support levels: 1.0730, 1.0650.
Trading tips
Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 1.0800, with the target at 1.0890. Stop loss – 1.0750. Implementation period: 7 days or more.
Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 1.0730, with the target at 1.0650. Stop loss is 1.0800.
إخلاء المسؤولية: الآراء الواردة هنا تعبر فقط عن رأي الكاتب، ولا تمثل الموقف الرسمي لـ Followme. لا تتحمل Followme مسؤولية دقة أو اكتمال أو موثوقية المعلومات المُقدمة، ولا تتحمل مسؤولية أي إجراءات تُتخذ بناءً على المحتوى، ما لم يُنص على ذلك صراحةً كتابيًا.
