Current trend

The NZD/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining close to 0.5965 and local highs from April 30. The instrument is preparing to end the weekly session near zero, recovering losses from last Tuesday.

The focus of investors' attention is still on the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Monetary authorities kept the rate at 5.50%, which coincided with market forecasts, while the Chair of the Fed, Jerome Powell, noted that restrictive policies will continue in the near future, as inflation exceeds target values, despite the positive pace of its slowdown. Despite this, officials still expect at least two adjustments to borrowing costs this year of 25 basis points each.

Trading participants evaluate the New Zealand labor market report for the first quarter, according to which the Unemployment Rate rose from 4.0% to 4.3% with a forecast of 4.2%, the Employment Change lost 0.2% after rising by 0.4% in the previous period, while markets were expecting 0.3%, and Participation Rate fell from 71.9% to 71.5%.

Today at 14:30 (GMT 2), April data on the US labor market will be published. It is assumed that Nonfarm Payrolls will decrease from 303.0 thousand to 243.0 thousand, and the Average Hourly Earnings will slow down from 4.1% to 4.0% in annual terms and remain at around 0.3% in monthly terms.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart Bollinger Bands are reversing into the ascending plane. The price range expands, freeing a path to new local highs for the "bulls". MACD indicator is growing, while preserving a rather stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics, but is rapidly approaching its highs, indicating growing risks of the New Zealand dollar being overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.6000, 0.6050, 0.6100, 0.6132.

Support levels: 0.5941, 0.5900, 0.5850, 0.5773.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a breakout of 0.6000 with the target of 0.6100. Stop-loss — 0.5941. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

A rebound from 0.6000 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 0.5941 may become a signal for opening of new short positions with the target at 0.5850. Stop-loss — 0.6000.