Current trend

Quotes of the XAU/USD pair continue their upward trend at 2287.0; however, a correction is now observed, which indicates a decrease in interest in the asset from short-term investors amid weakening expectations regarding changes in monetary policy in the United States in the near future.

Today at 20:00 (GMT 2) there will be a meeting of the US Federal Reserve, at which, most likely, the cost of borrowing will be kept at 5.50%. Thus, after the publication of data from the Conference Board the day before, reflecting a reduction in the Consumer Confidence Index in April to 97.0 points from 103.1 points, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool adjusted forecasts regarding the likelihood of an interest rate reduction to 0.0%, and expectations for the June and July meetings dropped to 9.5% and 21.1%, respectively. Against this background, trading participants are actively reducing positions in the asset.

In turn, gold trading volumes on the derivatives market continue to decline noticeably: if from April 1 to April 15 the average volume was recorded at the level of 350.0–370.0 thousand contracts, now this value is below 250.0 thousand, and on April 26 and 29, the volume of trading in futures for the precious metal completely adjusted to 183.6 thousand and 198.3 thousand, respectively, which is the minimum value in April.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the price drops to the resistance line of the ascending channel 2270.0–2100.0.

Technical indicators are weakening the buy signal, which is working out a local correction: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the AO histogram is forming new corrective bars, being above the transition level.

Support levels: 2270.0, 2200.0.

Resistance levels: 2305.0, 2360.0.

Trading tips

If the asset continues declining and the price consolidates below 2270.0, short positions can be opened with the target at 2200.0. Stop-loss — 2300.0. Implementation time: 7 days and more.

If the asset continues to grow and consolidates above the resistance level of 2305.0, buy positions with a target of 2360.0 will be relevant. Stop-loss — 2260.0.