The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been consolidating since the first days of 2024. Although the trading range looks to be around 5% from the beginning of this year, it has been even limited to only 3% most of the time. Volatility is nowhere and short-lived, if any, so this US CPI print on Wednesday is crucial as it could be the last possible data point confirming if the Fed is good to start reducing borrowing costs in June, or might not cut rates until after summer or not at all for 2024.
The first pivotal level for the DXY comes in at 104.60, which was broken last week on Wednesday to the downside, though broken up again from below on Friday. Further up, 105.12 is the key point after the DXY failed to break that level last week. Once above those levels, 105.88 is the last resistance point before the Relative Strength Index (RSI) enters overbought levels.
Support from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 103.81, the 100-day SMA at 103.43, and the 55-day SMA at 103.90 showed their importance last week on Wednesday. Further down, the 103.00 big figure looks to remain unchallenged for longer with ample support thus standing in the way
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