US Treasury yields, a key gauge of US inflation expectations, peaked on Monday, with the 10-year Treasury Note yield reaching YTD highs of 4.46%. US yields are highly correlated to the US Dollar and, therefore, negatively correlated with the EUR/USD pair. Since peaking on Monday, they rolled over and have been trending slightly down.
US inflation expectations increased after the stellar Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) jobs report released on Friday, which showed another 303K workers joining the economy in March.
More people working usually means more people earning and spending money. This ought to be negative for EUR/USD, however, the pair has been broadly rising over the past five days.
The release of better-than-expected German Industrial Production data on Monday may have helped the Euro at the start of the new week.
German yields are rising faster than US yields according to Gregor Horvat of advisory firm Wavetraders, which may explain why EUR/USD keeps going higher despite the strong US data.
Horvat uses Elliott Wave analysis, a type of cycle theory, and expects EUR/USD to continue its rally up to 1.0920 before the ECB meeting on Thursday
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