• EUR/USD sees rally cut short on a mixture of factors including geopolitical, Fed and German macro data. 
• Middle East tensions are pushing up Oil prices, with implications for inflation. 
• Fed officials vacillate on timing of first interest-rate cut, German factory data weighs.  

EUR/USD is trading back down in the lower 1.0800s on Friday after being rejected by bears at the key 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0874. 

A cocktail of risks appears to be weighing on the pair, including weaker-than-expected German data, geopolitical risks stemming from tensions in the Middle East, and recent commentary from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. 

The US Nonfarm Payrolls report at 12:30 GMT on Friday is the next major event likely to catalyze volatility for EUR/USD. A higher-than-expected rise in payrolls, estimated to come out at 200,000 in March, would support the US Dollar and vice versa for a miss. 

The Average Hourly Earnings component of the Labor Report could also impact the pair if it shows a substantial change in wage inflation. A rise would support USD (pushing down EUR/USD) and the opposite for a fall.