GBP/USD remains weak. Economists at Scotiabank analyze the pair’s outlook.

Price action retains a soft look

Sterling remains soft, with market sentiment still quite sour after Thursday’s BoE policy decision. Rates were left on hold, as expected, but the voting split (showing the MPC’s two more hawkish members recalibrating their vote to hold, from hike) has lifted speculation that lower rates may come sooner rather than later. Market betting on a June hike has perked up but a full cut is still not priced into OIS until August.

Daily trend support has broken (now resistance near 1.2690) and spot is testing its 200-DMA (1.2593). A retest of the low/mid-1.2500 zone looks likely.