USD/CHF: THE SWISS NATIONAL BANK WAS THE FIRST TO CUT INTEREST RATES

Current trend

Against the neutral dynamics of the American dollar, the USD/CHF pair is correcting at 0.8990.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) was the first among the world’s leading regulators to switch to a “dovish” rate, cutting the interest rate by 0.25 basis points to 1.50%. According to subsequent comments, the adjustment of the indicator became possible as inflation has been staying below the target level of 2.0% for several months and forecasts do not imply its strengthening: according to preliminary estimates, the consumer price index will be 1.4% this year, in 2025 – 1.2%, and in 2026 – 1.1%.

The American dollar is trading at 103.80 in USDX, supported by macroeconomic statistics: initial jobless claims decreased from 212.0K to 210.0K, and the total claims amounted to 1.807M, slightly higher than 1.803M previously. In addition, existing home sales in February increased by 9.5% from 4.00M to 4.38M compared to the December low of 3.78M.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the price is correcting upwards within the ascending channel with boundaries of 0.9100–0.8850.

Technical indicators are strengthening the buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator stay above the signal line, and the AO histogram forms corrective bars in the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 0.9020, 0.9110.

Support levels: 0.8950, 0.8850.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 0.9020, with the target at 0.9110. Stop loss is around 0.8950. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 0.8950, with the target at 0.8850. Stop loss – 0.9020.