| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Intraday |
| Recommendation | BUY STOP |
| Entry Point | 81.00 |
| Take Profit | 82.86 |
| Stop Loss | 80.00 |
| Key Levels | 77.00, 78.00, 79.07, 80.00, 81.00, 82.00, 82.86, 84.27 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | SELL STOP |
| Entry Point | 80.00 |
| Take Profit | 78.00 |
| Stop Loss | 81.00 |
| Key Levels | 77.00, 78.00, 79.07, 80.00, 81.00, 82.00, 82.86, 84.27 |
Current trend
During the Asian session, prices for WTI Crude Oil show ambiguous trading dynamics, consolidating near the level of 80.60: over the past two days, the quotes have reached new highs since the beginning of November.
The asset was significantly supported by a significant reduction in oil inventories in the United States: statistics from the American Petroleum Institute (API) for the week of March 8 reflected a correction in the indicator from 0.423M barrels to –5.521M barrels compared to forecasts of 0.400M barrels, and subsequent data from the Energy Administration information from the US Department of Energy (EIA) – from 1.367M barrels to –1.536M barrels, although analysts were counting on 1.338M barrels. In addition, the quotes were positively influenced by a report from OPEC published on Tuesday, in which the alliance confirmed that forecasts for growth in crude oil demand for 2024 and 2025 were maintained, reducing fears of a slow global economic recovery.
Today, investors will pay attention to the dynamics of American industrial production for February and March data on the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan. In addition, at 19:00 (GMT 2), a report from Baker Hughes on the US active rig count will be published: previously, there was a decrease in the indicator from 506 to 504 units.
According to the latest data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week, net speculative positions in WTI Crude Oil increased from 224.8K to 238.5K. As for the dynamics, the balance of “bulls” in the swap dealers amounted to 21.326K versus 31.255K for the “bears.” Last week, buyers increased the number of contracts by 1.618K, while sellers reduced them by 1.737K, confirming the balance in the asset.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are actively growing: the price range is expanding but not fast as the “bullish” sentiment develops. The MACD indicator is growing, maintaining a buy signal: the histogram is above the signal line. Stochastic shows similar dynamics but the indicator line is near the high values, signaling that the instrument may become overbought in the ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 81.00, 82.00, 82.86, 84.27.
Support levels: 80.00, 79.07, 78.00, 77.00.
Trading tips
Long positions may be opened after a breakout of 81.00, with the target at 82.86. Stop loss – 80.00. Implementation time: 2–3 days.
Short positions may be opened after a rebound from 81.00 and a breakdown of 80.00, with the target at 78.00. Stop loss – 81.00.
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