MEXICAN PESO BREAKS HIGHER ON MONDAY AS RATE CUT BETS MIX WITH SEASONAL FLOWS

• The Mexican Peso found fresh gains against the US Dollar on Monday.
• Mexican inflation is expected to ease sharply, propping up Banxico cut expectations.
• Seasonal flows typically bolster the Mexican Peso at the tail end of the first quarter.

The Mexican Peso (MXN) gained ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as counter-balanced rate cut expectations push the USD/MXN pair further down the charts. Common seasonal flows see bullish momentum leak into the Mexican Peso during the first quarter, and markets are forecasting a tumble in Mexican inflation.

Mexico is broadly expected to see further rate cuts from the Banco de México, aka Banxico. Mexico’s main reference rate has been held at record highs of 11.25% since April of 2023. US labor figures are also in the mix, with Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the barrel. Hopes of market rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) are also weighing on Monday market action.