Daily digest market movers: Gold advance prompted by soft US Dollar undermined by lower US yields

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  • US Durable Goods Orders dropped -6.1% MoM, more than the -4.5% contraction expected and the -0.3% dip observed in December.
  • The S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index for December rose 6.1% YoY, outpacing estimates of 6% and November’s 5.4% reading.
  • Previous data releases in the week:
    • US New Home Sales rose by 1.5% from 0.651M to 0.661M, less than the 0.68M expected.
    • The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for February contracted -11.3 though it improved compared to January’s -27.4 shrinkage, suggesting that business activity is recovering.
  • Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she’s in no rush to cut rates, given upside risks to inflation that could stall progress or cause a resurgence in price pressure.
  • Bowman said that inflation would decline “slowly,” adding that she will remain “cautious in my approach to considering future changes in the stance of policy.”
  • Interest rate speculators have priced out a Fed rate cut in March and May. For June, the odds of a 25 basis point rate cut are at 49.7%.
  • Investors are pricing in 85 basis points of easing throughout 2024.

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