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Daily Digest Market Movers: Geopolitics drive upside as investors await signs of Fed pivot

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setleme
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  • Gold price trades inside Tuesday’s trading range around $2,025 as investors await the FOMC minutes of the first monetary policy meeting of 2024 to get more insights about the timing of rate cuts.
  • The near-term outlook of Gold is bullish due to deepening Middle East tensions.
  • Persistent attacks from Iran-backed Houthis on commercial vessels in the Red Sea have escalated geopolitical tensions. Safe-haven assets tend to attract higher foreign inflows in times of geopolitical uncertainty.
  • Signs of the Fed’s willingness to keep interest rates higher for longer in the FOMC minutes could contribute further to the positive appeal for Gold. 
  • The opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, such as Gold, increases when the Fed maintains interest rates higher.
  • Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, has rebounded strongly from a fresh weekly low of around 103.80.
  • The solid USD Index’s recovery indicates uncertainty among market participants ahead of the FOMC minutes.
  • Market expectations for Fed rate cuts will guide further action in safe-haven assets.
  • As per the CME FedWatch tool, traders see a 54% chance for a 25 basis point (bp) rate cut in the June policy meeting.
  • This week, market participants will also focus on the preliminary S&P Global PMI data for February, which will be released on Thursday.
  • The Manufacturing PMI is forecasted to come out lower to 50.5 in February from 50.7 in January. The Services PMI, which represents sectors that account for two-thirds of the US economy, is expected to stand at 52.0, lower than the prior reading of 52.5.

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