The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been on a roller coaster ride in recent days. Economists at Commerzbank analyze Kiwi’s outlook.

Inflation expectations fall markedly

Today's two-year inflation expectations fell quite a bit to their lowest level since the third quarter of 2021. This puts them just half a percentage point above the midpoint of the RBNZ's 1-3% inflation target range. Not surprisingly, the Kiwi has given back much of Friday's gains.

Don't get me wrong, if the RBNZ does raise rates again, it would be an extremely hawkish signal and would justify much higher levels. But given the trend in inflation and economic growth, I just don't think it's very likely.