EUR/USD was rejected around 1.0800 on Monday. Economists at ING analyze the pair’s outlook.

Growth outlook not that relevant for the ECB

We like the chances of a moderate uptick in the pair this week. 

One risk to this view is the ZEW survey published in Germany today. Consensus is aligned for a modest rise in the expectations index and a small decline in the current situation index. The release has a history of moving the market, but there are fewer longer-term implications for ECB rate expectations. 

Markets are broadly positioned for a soft patch of economic growth in the Eurozone, and especially in Germany, and we don’t think the ECB will change its narrative meaningfully should the outlook deteriorate a little.