The EUR/USD pair should trend higher in the coming weeks. However, the Euro is likely to lose ground again in the second half of the year, economists at Commerzbank report.

Interim high in 2024?

The Euro should be able to make up ground against the US Dollar in 2024. We expect EUR/USD to end the year at 1.1200. 

The recovery is likely to be driven primarily by a weaker US Dollar, which is likely to suffer from the expected US interest rate cuts, just as it had previously benefited from the interest rate hikes.

Towards the end of the forecast horizon, however, we expect the EUR to weaken moderately again if inflation in the Eurozone is perceived as a persistent phenomenon. In addition, the Euro is likely to suffer from structural problems in the Eurozone in the medium term and therefore only see an interim high.