Economists at Scotiabank analyze EUR/USD outlook ahead of the ECB policy decision.

Gains are likely limited to the mid-1.0900s

A neutral hold is the likely outcome of today’s ECB policy decision. 

Recent comments from key policymakers have clearly steered market expectations towards the idea that no move lower in rates is likely before June at this point.

Swaps still reflect 16-17 bps of easing for the April meeting, which looks too rich, given current guidance so some repricing of ECB risk may give the EUR a mild lift today but there does not appear to be a lot of runway for EUR bulls to exploit at this point.