According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) January 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) update, global growth is projected to be 3.1 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025. This represents an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the October 2023 WEO forecast.
However, global trade is expected to expand by only 3.3% in 2024 and 3.6% in 2025, which is below the historical average of 4.9%. This is due to the impact of numerous trade restrictions that have been imposed.
In terms of inflation, the IMF maintains its October forecast of 5.8% for 2024 but has revised the 2025 forecast down to 4.4% from 4.6% in October. It should be noted that if we exclude Argentina, where inflation has spiked, global headline inflation would be lower.
Looking at specific regions, advanced economies are expected to experience average inflation of 2.6%, which is a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the October forecast. Central banks are projected to reach their inflation targets of 2% in 2025. On the other hand, emerging markets and developing economies are expected to have an average inflation rate of 8.1% in 2024, which is expected to ease to 6% in 2025.
In summary, global headline inflation is projected to decrease to 5.8% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025, with the 2025 forecast being revised down. IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas stated that the global economy is showing resilience and heading towards a soft landing, with inflation declining and growth holding up.
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