Current trend

Positive Japanese macroeconomic data cannot support the yen, and against the strengthening dollar in the context of geopolitical instability, the USD/JPY pair is trading at 148.84.

The August household expenditure index increased by 3.9% MoM, better than the forecast of 0.9% and the previous value of –2.7%, and reached –2.5% YoY, exceeding expectations of –4.3% and –5.0% earlier, while the services PMI for September increased to 53.8 points compared to the forecast of 53.3 points. Despite this, the USD/JPY pair continues its upward trend and may renew the highs around 150.50, as against the escalating conflict in the Middle East, investors prefer the American dollar as a traditional shelter asset, and its strengthening is likely to continue if hostilities do not end soon.

The long-term trend is upward: after declining to 147.45 in early October, the price is trying to continue rising to 150.50, and after the breakout, it may reach 155.50. However, if the support level of 147.45 is broken downwards, the quotes will begin a correction with the target around 144.75.

The medium-term trend is upward but now the asset is trading in a correction, which may reach key trend support 144.93–144.43, after which long positions with the targets at last week’s high 150.10 and in zone 3 (153.98–153.41) are relevant.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 150.50, 155.50.

Support levels: 147.45, 144.75, 141.70.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from 150.50 with the target at 147.45 and stop loss around 151.50. Implementation time: 9–12 days.

Long positions may be opened above 151.50 with the target at 153.50 and stop loss around 150.50.