Current trend

Last week, the AUD/USD pair had ambigous dynamics: at first, amid the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep the rate at 4.10%, the quotes fell to the area of 0.6285, but then they began to recover positions, which continues now.

Currently, the Australian currency receives support after the publication of a block of positive economic statistics. According to the National Bank of Australia (NAB), in September, the current business conditions index fell from 14 to 11 points, but still remained above the average annual level, while the confidence index remained at the same level (1 point). The Westpac consumer sentiment index in October rose by 2.9% to 82 points, but pessimistic citizens still prevail. The data on construction permits issued in August were also positive: their total volume increased by 7.0%, and the volume of permits for the construction of private houses increased by 5.8%. The Australian economy remains stable despite high consumer prices and a noticeable increase in interest rates.

The US currency is pressured due to uncertainty about the future actions of the US Federal Reserve. There is an unusual pattern in the country's economy that prevents the regulator from making decisions: inflationary growth is showing signs of slowing down, but the labor market remains strong. Probably, after the Thursday release of data on the consumer price index for September, representatives of the regulator will be able to finally decide whether to raise the key rate again.

Support and resistance

Technically, the price has reversed from the lower border of the descending channel and is now testing the 0.6408 mark (Murrey level [1/8]), supported by the central line of Bollinger Bands. Consolidating above it will allow the quotes to continue growing to the levels of 0.6530 (Murrey level [3/8]) and 0.6591 (Murrey level [4/8]). The key for the "bears" is the 0.6347 mark (Murrey level [0/8]), the breakdown of which will ensure the resumption of the decline to 0.6286 (Murrey level [-1/8]) and 0.6225 (Murrey level [-2/8]).

Technical indicators do not give a single signal: Bollinger Bands are horizontal, MACD is declining in the negative zone, while Stochastic is directed upwards.

Resistance levels: 0.6408, 0.6530, 0.6591.

Support levels: 0.6347, 0.6286, 0.6225.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened above the level of 0.6435 with targets at 0.6530, 0.6591 and stop loss at 0.6380. Implementation period: 5-7 days.

Short positions may be opened below the level of 0.6347 with targets at 0.6286, 0.6225 and stop loss at 0.6390.