Current trend

The USD/JPY pair is showing moderate growth, developing corrective dynamics in the short term. The instrument is testing 148.75 for a breakout, although during the morning session it managed to update the local lows of October 3. The position of the American currency is once again strengthening under the influence of technical factors and growing demand for safe assets in response to the worsening situation in the Middle East.

At the same time, investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions ahead of the publication of macroeconomic data in the United States. Tomorrow, September data on producer inflation will be presented, as well as minutes of the latest meeting of the US Federal Reserve, and on Thursday, statistics on the Consumer Price Index will be published, which may predetermine the vector of the regulator’s monetary policy. Forecasts suggest a further slowdown in the indicator from 0.6% to 0.3% in monthly terms and from 3.7% to 3.6% in annual terms.

In turn, macroeconomic data from Japan puts pressure on the yen. The September Eco Watchers Survey on Current Situation fell from 53.6 points to 49.9 points, and the Eco Watchers Outlook went down from 51.4 points to 49.5 points. The country's non-seasonally adjusted Current Account in August fell from 2771.7 billion yen to 2279.7 billion yen, which was worse than analysts' expectations at 3090.9 billion yen.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show flat dynamics. The price range is narrowing, reflecting mixed trading in the short term. MACD is falling, keeping a relatively strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic, having reached approximately the center of its area, reversed into a horizontal plane, signaling an approximate balance of forces in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 149.00, 149.30, 149.69, 150.00.

Support levels: 148.47, 148.00, 147.36, 146.62.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a breakout of 149.00 with the target of 149.69. Stop-loss — 148.60. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

A rebound from 149.00 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 148.47 may become a signal for opening of new short positions with the target at 147.36. Stop-loss — 149.00.