In the aftermath of Tuesday's meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), AUD/USD weakened again. Economists at Commerzbank analyze Aussie’s outlook.

Focus likely to shift increasingly to the further outlook

After four meetings with unchanged interest rates, there is certainly not too much to be said for a surprising rate hike in November. However, this mainly depends on the data published until then. Among other things, the quarterly inflation figures are on the agenda at the end of the month.

Regardless of the question of whether there will be another rate hike, however, the focus is likely to shift increasingly to the further outlook. And in view of the still elevated inflation, the robust labor market and currently solid growth, there is much to suggest that the RBA will not lower interest rates next year for the time being. This should also benefit the Aussie in the medium term.