GOLD PRICE FORECAST: XAU/USD APPROACHES $1,900 AS MORE CLUES OF US INFLATION LOOM

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Gold Price remains pressured at the lowest level in five weeks after volatile Thursday.

Softer-than-expected United States Consumer Price Index (CPI), downbeat employment clues weigh on Fed bets and prod XAU/USD sellers.

Strong US Treasury bond yields, mixed concerns about China and market’s cautious optimism favor Gold bears.

US PPI, UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations eyed for clear XAU/USD directions as hawkish Fed bets recede.

Gold Price (XAU/USD) bears are in control at the lowest level in a month, despite the mid-Thursday’s corrective bounce, as markets await more clues of the US inflation data on early Friday. That said, the XAU/USD initially bounced off a one-month low after the United States inflation data flashed mixed signals and the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials cheered the victory against inflation. However, a jump in the US Treasury bond yield and looming China concerns favored the US Dollar’s recovery and drowned the Gold Price afterwards.


Gold Price stays bearish despite US CPI-induced bounce

Gold Price drops to the lowest level since early July, following an initial attempt to push back the bearish bias after the United States inflation data printed mixed signals and the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials were in a rush to cheer the victory against price pressure. However, strong US Treasury bond yields and fears emanating from China exert downside pressure on the XAU/USD price.


US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July matched market forecasts to reprint 0.2% MoM figures. However, the yearly CPI improved slower-than-expected 3.3% to 3.2% YoY for the said month, versus 3.0% previous readings, marking the first acceleration in the annual rate in 13 months. Furthermore, the CPI ex Food & Energy, also known as the Core CPI, also flashed an unchanged 0.20% MoM figures while meeting market consensus but eased to 4.7% YoY compared to 4.8% marked in June and the expected numbers. Elsewhere, the US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 248K for the week ended on August 04 versus 230K expected and 227K prior while Continuing Jobless Claims softened to 1.684M from 1.692M (revised), versus 1.71M market forecasts.


The US statistics helped Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to toast the Fed’s progress in its fight against inflation and was joined by Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins and Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to cheer the softer US CPI. However, San Francisco Fed President Daly turned down the cheers for their victory while saying, “There’s still more work to do.” 


Although the United States data and the Fed talks fuelled market’s bets on the Fedral Reserve’s (Fed) inaction for September, the traders were still concerned about the higher for longer rates in the US, as well as the geopolitical fears, which in turn favored the yields and the US Dollar while weighing on the Gold Price afterward.


It’s worth noting that growing fears that the UK and European Union will also follow the US in limiting investment in China technology companies seem to have challenged the market’s geopolitical concerns. Further, the chatters about slower economic growth in top-tier economies and recession woes in China, Germany and the UK pushed back the Gold buyers as well.


That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) marked a positive daily closing around 102.62, after initially declining to the one-week low, whereas the US 10-year Treasury bond yields jumped the most in a week to 4.10% at the latest. Even so, Wall Street managed to end the day on a positive side, despite trimming gains by the day’s end

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