- The EUR treads water around 1.1230 vs. USD on Friday.
- Fed’s Waller favoured two more rate hikes by the Fed this year.
- The USD Index drops to new 15-month lows near 99.60.
- The Fed and the ECB are seen hiking rates by 25 bps this month.
- Oil, Gold retreats marginally during the European morning.
Technical Analysis: Euro sees the next up-barrier near 1.1500
The ongoing price action in EUR/USD hints at the idea that further gains might be in store in the short-term horizon. However, the current pair’s overbought condition (as per the daily RSI well above 70) opens the door to a potential near-term corrective move.
The pair printed a new 2023 high at 1.1243 on July 14. Once this level is cleared, there are no resistance levels of significance until the 2022 peak of 1.1495 recorded on February 10.
On the downside, the 1.1000 region emerges as a psychological support seconded by interim contention at the 55-day and 100-day SMAs at 1.0881 and 1.0852, respectively, ahead of the July low of 1.0833 (July 6) . The breakdown of this region should meet the next contention area not before the May low of 1.0635 (May 31), which also looks underpinned by the crucial 200-day SMA (1.0651). South from here emerges the March low of 1.0516 (March 15) prior to the 2023 low of 1.0481 (January 6).
Furthermore, the constructive view of EUR/USD appears unchanged as long as the pair trades above the key 200-day SMA.
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