SOFT US CPI TO WEIGH ON USD
The USD has been on the backfoot ahead of the US CPI inflation report. Economists at Rabobank analyze the greenback’s outlook.
Disinflation?
The headline number is expected at 3.1% YoY, down from the May number of 4.0% YoY. This would be the lowest number since early 2021. While core inflation is stickier, the Bloomberg survey median stands at 5% for the June number down from 5.3% the previous month.
A number in line or below expectations will likely allow EUR/USD to become more comfortable above the 1.10 level in the near-term. However, continued risk of recession in the US suggests that the USD is likely to avoid a strong sell-off on a three-to-six month horizon.
See – US CPI Banks Preview: Inflation to step meaningfully lower in June
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