Current trend

The "bulls" accumulate long positions in the asset before a possible sale after the announcement of the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting, at which the interest rate could again be adjusted by 25 basis points. Against it, investors are considering instruments with higher returns and at the same time high reliability, allowing them to hedge risks. There are not so many of them: first of all, it should be noted 2-year treasury bonds with a guaranteed income of 5.0% YOY. However, now market participants expect that the S&P 500 quotes will continue to rise in the long term, and therefore keep the asset in their portfolios. This trend will last at least until July 26 – the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, after which changes are possible.

The long-term trend is upward: earlier, the price slightly decreased but now it has again started moving to the high of the last week, after which the positive dynamics may continue to the resistance level of 4500.00, and then, most likely, long positions will be consolidated by large players. In case of the development of a correction from this mark, it will be possible to consider sales with the target at the support level of 4333.00. The RSI indicator marked a sell signal, showing a divergence between the price chart and the indicator. It is quite possible that when the high of the last week is renewed, the signal will remain, and it will evolve into a Triple divergence, increasing the chances of a corrective pattern developing.

The medium-term trend is directed upwards: quotes are trying to overcome zone 3 (4432.00–4410.00), which requires consolidation above the high of last week 4458.00, after which the next target will be zone 4 (4656.00–4634.00).

The key trend support is shifting to 4237.00–4215.00, which the price may reach in case of a correction. After testing this area, long positions with the target at 4458.00 are relevant.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 4500.00, 4630.00.

Support levels: 4333.00, 4270.00, 4100.00.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from 4500.00 with the target at 4333.00 and stop loss around 4550.00. Implementation period: 9–12 days.

Long positions may be opened above 4550.00 with the target at 4670.00 and stop loss around 4500.00.