Current trend

The EUR/USD pair has been growing for the fourth session in a row and today reached its highest values since May around 1.1026, however, euro quotes are currently under pressure amid the publication of weak data on economic sentiment from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW).

Thus, the July index declined more than experts expected and amounted to -12.2 points, and the indicator for Germany dropped even more and reached -14.7 points. In general, the mood of entrepreneurs continues to deteriorate, as the region's economy remains under pressure from the "hawkish" monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) and a long-term interest rate hike aimed primarily at combating record inflation: in June, consumer prices in Germany again accelerated growth from 6.1% to 6.4%.

Nevertheless, despite the weak economic statistics, the potential for further growth of the EUR/USD pair remains. Experts expect the publication on Wednesday of June data on inflation in the USA: the consumer price index on an annualized basis is likely to decrease from 4.0% to 3.1%, and the base indicator – from 5.3% to 5.0%. The implementation of these forecasts may act as a catalyst for the US Fed officials to maintain a pause in tightening monetary policy at the July meeting, which will weaken the position of the US currency in relation to its main competitors.

Support and resistance

The price has risen above the level of 1.0986 (Murray level [4/8]) and may continue to move towards the levels of 1.1108 (Murray level [6/8]) and 1.1200 (Fibo retracement 61.8%). The key for the "bears" is the 1.0925 mark (the Murray level [3/8]), supported by the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, when the instrument is broken down, it will fall to the area of 1.0864 (Murray level [2/8]) and 1.0800 (Murray level [1/8]).

Technical indicators confirm the continuation of the upward trend: the Bollinger Bands and the Stochastic are directed upwards, the MACD histogram increases in the positive zone.

Resistance levels: 1.1108, 1.1200.

Support levels: 1.0925, 1.0864, 1.0800.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from 1.1030 with targets at 1.1108, 1.1200 and stop-loss in the area of 1.0980. Implementation period: 5-7 days.

Short positions may be opened below 1.0925 with targets at 1.0864, 1.0800 and stop-loss in the area of 1.0965.