GBP/USD has risen to the highest levels since last April on the back of some strong UK wage data for May. Economists at ING analyze the pair’s outlook.

Pay data can keep the Bank of England hawkish for longer

The upward surprise to UK wage growth is partly down to backward revisions. But that is not a huge comfort because looking at the private sector, which is what the BoE focuses on, we have seen another big MoM increase in pay. Whether that is partly because of the ongoing passthrough of the new National Living Wage ( 10% in April), is not clear. But certainly, these are not figures the BoE will want to see and will maintain the market's exceptionally aggressive pricing of the Bank Rate up near 6.40% early next year.

GBP/USD looks set to extend to 1.30 in this soft Dollar environment, while EUR/GBP can retest the lows near 0.8520.