EUR/USD is nudging above 1.10 in quiet conditions. Economists at ING analyze the pair’s outlook.

Not get over-eager on a possible range break-out

The default view will be that EUR/USD is unlikely to break above 1.1100 since the Fed is still hawkish and risk assets have yet to adjust to the much more restrictive monetary policy settings around the world. It is probably dangerous to expect a range break-out, but if it were to occur this week, Wednesday's US June CPI figure would probably be the catalyst.

We have been here before and should not get over-eager on a possible range break-out, but we could see EUR/USD drifting closer to the year's highs near 1.1100.