IDR was leaning on the weaker side against the USD in June. Economists at MUFG Bank analyze USD/IDR outlook.

Supportive current account fundamentals for the IDR

Fundamentals are stable. GDP growth reached 5.03% YoY in Q1, similar to the 5.01% result in Q4-2022. Inflation retreated further. We anticipate that inflation will head lower towards a 2-3% range in the coming months. 

We also believe that Indonesia’s trade surplus will be a supportive factor for the IDR.

We expect USD/IDR to fall back to 14,400 in Q2-2024 as yield differentials widen once again in favour of IDR.